| 논문명 |
기본 전력수요와 상대계수법을 이용한 봄과 가을의 중기 최저 전력수요예측 기법 / Mid-Term Minimum Electric Power Load Forecasting Technique in Spring and Autumn Using Basic Electric Power Load and Relative Coefficient Method |
| 저자명 |
김경환(Kyeong-Hwan Kim) ; 권보성(Bo-Sung Kwon) ; 조승민(Seung-Min Cho) ; 송경빈(Kyung-Bin Song) |
| 수록사항 |
조명전기설비학회논문지, Vol.39 No.2 (2025-04) |
| 주제어 |
; Basic electric power load; Minimum electric power load forecasting; Relative coefficient method; Small-scale solar power generation |
| 요약2 |
Policies to expand renewable energy for carbon neutrality have led to a rapid increase in small-scale solar power generation. This has resulted in annual minimum electric power load occurring during daytime on weekends and holidays in spring and fall. During these times, solar and nuclear power account for the majority of generation, leading to difficulties for grid stability. To ensure stable grid operation, a mid-term plan and an accurate forecasting technique for minimum electric power load are essential. This paper proposes a technique that uses the basic electric power load and a relative coefficient method to predict minimum electric power load in spring and autumn. It calculates the monthly basic electric power load, incorporating GDP influences while excluding temperature effects, and estimates Sunday demand using a relative coefficient method, thereby predicting minimum electric power load while reflecting the impacts of small-scale solar generation. The proposed technique shows particularly excellent forecasting performance in spring. |
