| 논문명 |
[논문] 주택수요의 규모별 분포 예측 / Forecasting the Size Distribution of Housing Demand: Using Projected Household Data in the Mankiw-Weil Model / 맨큐-와일 모형에서 추계가구자료의 활용 |
| 수록사항 |
국토계획, v.48 n.2(통권 197호) (2013-04) |
| 주제어 |
주거면적 ; 주택수요 ; 가구추계 ; 맨큐-와일모형 ; 한국노동패널 ; Housing Size ; Housing Demand ; Projected Households ; Mankiw-Weil Model ; KLIPS(Korean Labor and Income Panel Study) |
| 요약2 |
This study, based on the 13th Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (2010) forecasts the size distribution of housing demand from 2012 to 2035. The Mankiw-Weil Model is not appropriate for this forecast as the model uses projected population data, not projected household data. This study modifies the MW model to utilize the projected household data and applies recent data published by the Statistics Korea. The results are as follows: First, the housing size from 25 pyeong (pyg) to 30 pyg, which represents the largest portion of current housing size distribution, will decrease. At the same time, the housing size from 30 pyg to 35 pyg will become the most prevalent housing size for Korean households. Second, the housing demand for small-sized housing will not decline. Most estimates exhibit the increasing demand, mainly due to the fast-growing single or double person households. Finally, in spite of these changes, the 25-30 pyg will remain the median housing size of Korean. However, this is not due to a huge increase of 25-30 pyg housing, but rather equivalent increases in housing smaller and larger than 25-30 pyg. |
