| 논문명 |
Bayesian MCMC 방법을 이용한 HVAC 시스템 의사결정 / Decision Making of HVAC system using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo method / 춘계-계07. 제05분과 건축환경 및 설비 |
| 수록사항 |
대한건축학회 학술발표대회 논문집, v.32 n.1(계획계) (2012-04) |
| 주제어 |
베이지안 의사결정 ; 불확실성 분석 ; 효용함수 ; MCMC ; 빌딩 시뮬레이션 ; Bayesian Decision Making ; Uncertainty Analysis ; Utility Function ; Markov Chain Monte Carlo ; Building Simulation |
| 요약2 |
Building performance simulation has become a valuable decision making tool since it can capture dynamic behavior and impact of energy saving components. However, it is well acknowledged that simulation prediction is strongly influenced by simplifications and assumptions used for the modeling process as well as uncertain parameters. This paper presents multi-criteria (construction cost, total energy use) decision making of HVAC systems under uncertainty. For the uncertainty propagation, Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method was employed. Then, a Bayesian decision theory was applied to solve decision making under uncertainty, and a stochastic inference method using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is applied. |
