| 논문명 |
Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation System (SPSS III) |
| 수록사항 |
한국건설관리학회 논문집, Vol.6 No.1 (2005-02) |
| 주제어 |
; Critical path method ; probability ; scheduling ; simulation ; sensitivity analysis |
| 요약1 |
This paper introduces a Stochastic Project Scheduling Simulation system (SPSS III) developed by the author to predict a project completion probability in a certain time. The system integrates deterministic CPM, probabilistic PERT, and stochastic Discrete Event Simulation (DES) scheduling methods into one system. It implements automated statistical analysis methods for computing the minimum number of simulation runs, the significance of the difference between independent simulations, and the confidence interval for the mean project duration as well as sensitivity analysis method in What-if analyzer component. The SPSS III gives the several benefits to researchers in that it (1) complements PERT and Monte Carlo simulation by using stochastic activity durations via a web based JAVA simulation over the Internet, (2) provides a way to model a project network having different probability distribution functions, (3) implements statistical analyses method which enable to produce a reliable prediction of the probability of completing a project in a specified time, and (4) allows researchers to compare the outcome of CPM, PERT and DES under different variability or skewness in the activity duration data. |
